Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity afforded by current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, destruction and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that European nations are demonstrably unable to fill in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration functions according to a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House presumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.
