A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. They writes two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
